(Crônicas de uma Pandemia – Duzentos e Dezesseis Dias)

O que reproduzo abaixo não diminui em nada a importância da pandemia, mas demonstra que a doença deve estar mais disseminada do que os números oficiais mostram. Mantemos os cuidados, mas – de novo afirmo – sem pânico.

 

Até.

 

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

 

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

John P A Ioannidisa

a Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road,

Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.

(Published online: 14 October 2020)

 

Objective: To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from seroprevalence data.

 

Methods: I searched PubMed and preprint servers for COVID-19 seroprevalence

studies with a sample size  500 as of 9 September, 2020. I also retrieved additional results of national studies from preliminary press releases and reports. I assessed the studies for design features and seroprevalence estimates. I estimated the infection fatality rate for each study by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected in each region. I corrected for the number of antibody types tested (immunoglobin, IgG, IgM, IgA).

 

Results: I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.

 

Conclusion: The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across

different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case mix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.